Opec+ is expected to keep its oil production targets unchanged for November when the group’s core members meet on Sunday, according to three sources familiar with the discussions.
The decision comes as Gulf producers continue to face major disruptions to oil exports linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran. Shipments from the region have fluctuated between 60% and 80% of normal levels in recent months, leaving several producers unable to reach their official production targets.
The Opec+ group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, has agreed in principle to maintain current targets for November, the sources said.
The group has spent much of 2026 gradually increasing production targets after several years of supply cuts. However, much of the planned increase has remained theoretical as the conflict in the Middle East has restricted exports and disrupted production plans.
Opec data showed that the seven core members of the group produced about 25 million barrels per day in August, an increase of 630,000 bpd from July. Despite the monthly rise, output remained around 5 million bpd below levels recorded before the war in February.
Opec+ still has about 2 million bpd of production cuts in place, covering most members. The group had been expected to consider further increases as part of its wider plan to restore production, but the conflict has complicated decisions about how much additional oil individual countries can realistically bring to market.
The war has also delayed a review of members’ production capacity. The assessment is important because it will help determine the output quotas for 2027. Industry sources have said uncertainty over future production capacity has made it difficult to complete the review.
The capacity assessment is expected to determine how future production increases are distributed among members. Sources have indicated that any significant changes to individual output levels are unlikely to take place before 2027.
The seven core Opec+ members scheduled to meet on Sunday are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.
The decision to leave November targets unchanged would allow the group to monitor developments in oil exports and production capacity while the regional conflict continues to affect supply flows.
Opec+ has previously adjusted production plans in response to changing market conditions, but the current disruptions have made official targets less reflective of actual output. The group is therefore expected to focus on maintaining its existing framework while awaiting greater clarity over production capacity and export conditions.
