Buyers and investors eyeing properties in Dubai have been told to wait, that a flood of new homes is coming, and prices will finally ease. But walk the streets or scroll the listings, and the reality is different.”
That contrast is shaping Dubai’s residential market as it heads into 2026. While tens of thousands of homes are listed in official pipelines, far fewer are reaching handover, leaving supply tighter than many forecasts suggest.
Data from Morgan’s International Realty shows that out of 71,613 residential units forecast for delivery this year, only about 34,740 are likely to be completed. The shortfall mirrors last year’s pattern. In 2025, Dubai was expected to add more than 37,000 units, yet barely 62 per cent of those homes were delivered by year-end.
This persistent gap is keeping competition high. Elias Hannoush, founder and chief executive of Morgan’s International Realty, said delivery volumes remain below levels that would significantly shift pricing power toward buyers. Dubai’s five-year average of around 35,500 completed units a year has not been consistently met, limiting the chances of market-wide discounts.
Andrew Cummings, head of residential agency at Savills Middle East, agrees. He said the difference between projected and actual handovers has become a defining feature of the market, adding that not every unit scheduled for completion ever reaches buyers on time.
As a result, analysts expect 2026 to favour selective buyers rather than trigger broad price declines. Opportunities tend to appear briefly when large projects in high-density districts complete at the same time, releasing many similar units into the market. These moments often occur in investor-driven locations such as Jumeirah Village Circle or Business Bay, where negotiation room can open before demand absorbs the new stock.
Villas and premium homes, however, continue to face limited new supply, keeping pricing firm. Cummings noted that apartments at the lower end of the market are beginning to show mild softening, while townhouses and villas remain scarce.
Jumeirah Village Circle leads Dubai’s delivery pipeline with nearly 16,900 units scheduled between 2025 and 2027. Business Bay follows with just over 10,000, while Azizi Venice is set to add about 7,860 homes. These areas are expected to test buyer interest and pricing flexibility in short bursts.
Some buyers are being advised to wait for 2027, when deliveries are projected to rise to more than 70,000 units. Hannoush cautions that higher supply does not automatically mean cheaper prices. Affordability improves only when supply clearly outpaces demand and rental performance weakens, which has not yet happened.
Cummings also discourages short-term thinking, saying Dubai real estate increasingly attracts long-term capital rather than speculative trading.
For buyers entering the market in 2026, both experts stress that success depends less on timing the cycle and more on choosing the right asset. Well-located, well-designed properties continue to hold value, while weaker stock reacts very differently.
In a market shaped by gaps between forecasts and reality, knowing where — and when — to buy remains the key advantage.
