Aircraft availability remains one of the most pressing challenges facing the global aviation industry, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). A structural mismatch between airline demand and manufacturing capacity is expected to persist until at least 2031-2034, highlighting the long-term impact of delivery delays and supply chain disruptions.
Although new aircraft deliveries have picked up in 2025 and production is expected to accelerate in 2026, demand is projected to exceed the availability of both aircraft and engines. IATA noted that normalising the gap between airline requirements and production is unlikely before 2034 due to irreversible delays over the past five years and a record-high order backlog.
Current shortfalls amount to at least 5,300 undelivered aircraft, while the order backlog has surpassed 17,000 planes, equivalent to nearly 60 per cent of the active global fleet. This backlog represents almost 12 years of production at current rates. As a result, the average fleet age has risen to 15.1 years, with passenger aircraft averaging 12.8 years, cargo planes 19.6 years, and wide-body fleets 14.5 years. More than 5,000 aircraft remain in storage despite the scarcity of new planes.
The shortage of new deliveries has forced airlines to operate older, less fuel-efficient aircraft for longer periods. This increases operational costs, slows progress on environmental goals, and limits the ability to expand routes or frequencies. Many airlines are delaying growth plans, reducing connectivity, and cutting services, with secondary or developing markets often affected first.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said, “Airlines are feeling the impact of aerospace supply chain challenges across their business. Higher leasing costs, reduced scheduling flexibility, delayed sustainability gains, and reliance on suboptimal aircraft are among the most visible challenges. Travellers are also facing higher costs due to tighter supply conditions.”
Production bottlenecks are compounded by factors such as airframe production outpacing engine supply, longer aircraft certification timelines, tariffs on metals and electronics, and a shortage of skilled labour in engine and component manufacturing. Fuel efficiency improvements have slowed, dropping from historical gains of 2.0 per cent per year to just 0.3 per cent in 2025, with a projected 1.0 per cent improvement in 2026.
IATA and Oliver Wyman estimate that supply chain bottlenecks will cost the airline industry more than $11 billion in 2025, driven by excess fuel expenses, higher maintenance costs, increased engine leasing, and surplus inventory. Recommendations to ease the crisis include improving supply chain visibility, expanding repair and parts capacity, adopting aftermarket best practices, and supporting predictive maintenance strategies.
The structural shortage is expected to persist through the decade, posing a challenge to meeting net-zero carbon targets and constraining air connectivity. Analysts warn that reduced aircraft availability will continue to affect tourism, trade, cargo, and business travel, creating ripple effects across global economic growth.
