Oil prices rose slightly on Friday but remained on course for a weekly loss of nearly 3%, as forecasts of a growing supply glut and renewed geopolitical developments weighed on market sentiment.
Brent crude futures increased by 10 cents, or 0.16%, to $61.16 a barrel by 11:17 a.m. CDT (1617 GMT), while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 10 cents, or 0.17%, to $57.56.
The modest rebound followed a turbulent week for energy markets, dominated by geopolitical news and weak demand outlooks. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a growing oil surplus in 2026, signalling that supply could outpace demand as production expands in the United States and other major producers.
Adding to the market’s uncertainty, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to hold a summit in Hungary within the next two weeks to discuss the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The announcement followed a temporary ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, developments that traders said could ease some geopolitical risk premiums in the oil market.
“The once-in-a-generation peace deal in the Middle East, Iran being neutralised, and now potential progress in Ukraine — an unprecedented amount of risk has come out of the market,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was visiting Washington to seek additional military support, including long-range Tomahawk missiles, as the United States continues to pressure India and China to reduce their purchases of Russian oil.
Despite Friday’s mild gains, analysts said the broader market tone remained bearish amid concerns about slowing global growth. Rising trade tensions between the US and China added to fears of weakening energy demand. “It just demolishes confidence,” said Jorge Montepeque, managing director at Onyx Capital Group, warning that the US economy could soon feel the impact.
On the domestic front, a fire at BP’s Whiting refinery in Indiana briefly disrupted regional fuel markets. Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said gasoline prices across the Great Lakes region could jump by as much as 20 cents per gallon following the incident.
Limiting further gains in crude prices was the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which reported a larger-than-expected rise in oil inventories. US crude stocks increased by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million last week, compared with expectations of a 288,000-barrel build.
The inventory surge was attributed to lower refinery activity as facilities enter scheduled autumn maintenance. The EIA also said US crude production had risen to a record 13.636 million barrels per day, underscoring the continued strength of American output.
With growing inventories and signs of supply expansion ahead, analysts said the oil market could face further downward pressure in the coming weeks unless global demand picks up significantly.
