The Central Bank of the UAE has raised its forecast for economic growth in 2027 to 10.4%, up from its previous estimate of 9.8%, citing stronger expected activity in both the oil and non-oil sectors.
The revised forecast was published in the central bank’s September 2026 Quarterly Economic Review, released on September 30. The new projection represents an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the forecast issued in June.
The central bank expects the UAE’s oil production to reach five million barrels per day next year, supporting a sharp increase in hydrocarbon activity. It forecasts hydrocarbon-sector activity to expand by 26.8% in 2027 as production conditions normalise.
For 2026, the CBUAE projects overall real GDP growth of 1.6%, with hydrocarbon activity expected to increase by 2.4%. The bank said the medium-term outlook remains supported by expansion across both hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon sectors.
The forecast comes as the UAE seeks to expand oil production while maintaining growth across industries such as financial services, construction, manufacturing, tourism and trade.
Non-oil GDP is projected to grow by 1.3% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027, following growth of 6.8% in 2025. The central bank said a broad range of non-hydrocarbon activities would continue to support economic growth.
The UAE has also been preparing to raise its oil production capacity after leaving OPEC. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has targeted production capacity of five million barrels per day, which would give the country greater room to increase output.
The stronger outlook follows a period of uncertainty caused by the regional conflict that began in February. UAE Economy and Tourism Minister Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri recently said the economy could see a strong rebound next year as conditions improve.
The central bank said the UAE entered 2026 with substantial fiscal buffers, including relatively low public debt and significant sovereign assets. These factors provide the government with capacity to support economic activity when necessary.
It also pointed to several measures supporting the economy, including the CBUAE Financial Resilience Package, Dubai’s Dh2.5 billion support initiative and infrastructure-related public spending.
The central bank said these measures, together with the UAE’s broader economic fundamentals, were expected to maintain favourable conditions for businesses and investment.
The September review represents a significant change from earlier forecasts. The CBUAE’s March 2026 review had projected UAE real GDP growth of 5.6% for both 2025 and 2026, highlighting the scale of the latest upward revision for 2027.
The central bank cautioned that the medium-term outlook remains subject to developments in the external environment, including conditions affecting global trade, energy markets and regional economic activity.
