Gold remained one of the world’s strongest-performing assets over the past year despite retreating from record highs reached earlier in 2026, according to the World Gold Council’s latest mid-year outlook.
The report said the precious metal has outperformed most major investment categories over the past 12 months, including US and global bonds, cash, balanced portfolios, US equities, developed market stocks outside the United States and commodities. Only emerging market equities posted stronger returns during the same period.
Gold prices have fallen about 7% since the start of the year after reaching an all-time intraday high of more than $5,500 per ounce in January. By late June, prices had eased to around $4,000 an ounce. Despite the decline, the council said gold has continued to deliver stronger returns than many other asset classes.
According to the report, the first half of 2026 demonstrated gold’s role as a preferred investment during periods of geopolitical uncertainty and rapidly changing market sentiment. It also highlighted the increasing influence of Asian markets in shaping global gold prices.
The World Gold Council said current gold prices largely reflect the existing global economic environment, characterised by moderate economic growth, inflation that remains above historical averages despite easing, and expectations that central banks will continue tightening monetary policy at a gradual pace.
Based on those conditions, the council expects gold prices to remain relatively stable during the second half of the year, trading within a range of about 5% above or below current levels.
The report also outlined several factors that could trigger another rally. A weaker global economy, renewed geopolitical tensions, expectations of lower interest rates or stronger investor demand could push gold back toward $4,500 an ounce. More powerful market catalysts could drive prices even higher.
On the other hand, continued economic resilience, rising bond yields and calmer financial markets could place additional pressure on gold prices. Even in that scenario, the council believes increased buying by investors seeking lower prices would likely limit declines to between 10% and 15% from current levels.
The report attributed much of gold’s performance this year to geopolitical risks and changing investor sentiment. Trading momentum, profit-taking and shifts in expectations surrounding interest rates and the US dollar also contributed to price movements.
Gold price volatility rose above 50% during the height of the US-Iran conflict before easing to below 30% as tensions subsided. Although volatility has moderated, it remains well above the long-term average of 17%.
Looking ahead, the World Gold Council expects central bank purchases to continue supporting demand. Policy changes in major consumer markets, including India, could also influence buying patterns during the remainder of the year.
The council added that while gold’s performance during the recent Middle East conflict did not fully match historical expectations, the circumstances were unusual and should not be viewed as typical. It also noted that persistently elevated inflation could continue to strengthen gold’s appeal as investors seek assets capable of preserving purchasing power over the long term.
