Qatar National Bank (QNB) has projected that U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term will bring marked changes to U.S. economic policy, with significant implications for global trade, finance, and immigration. In its weekly commentary, QNB outlined Trump’s anticipated economic approach, which it described as pro-business, pro-capital, and strongly protectionist, while cautioning that campaign rhetoric may differ from policy reality.
QNB noted that while the U.S. election is a domestic matter, its effects reverberate globally. “National U.S. policies will determine the pace of the global economy for the next four years,” QNB stated, adding that with a projected nominal GDP of $29.2 trillion in 2024, the U.S. plays a critical role in global economic stability.
QNB anticipates Trump’s fiscal policy will emphasize tax cuts and targeted spending reductions. Trump has pledged to reduce the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% and is expected to extend individual tax cuts set to expire in 2025. These measures could potentially decrease government revenue by $3-4 trillion, a shortfall Trump aims to counterbalance through a proposed government efficiency commission, expected to be led by entrepreneur Elon Musk. If successful, the commission could save up to $2 trillion by improving government operations—a move QNB believes could stimulate private sector activity without significant strain on federal finances.
In trade, QNB predicts Trump will revive his protectionist stance, aiming to boost domestic manufacturing by imposing minimum external tariffs of 10% and a potential 60% tariff on Chinese imports. While such tariffs could disrupt global trade and provoke retaliation from major trading partners, QNB suggests Trump’s aggressive trade tactics are intended more as negotiating leverage than fully enforceable policy. The bank anticipates that Trump will use these threats to secure favorable terms from the European Union and China, particularly in foreign direct investment (FDI), aligning with his agenda to bring more manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.
On immigration, QNB expects Trump to soften his campaign stance post-election. During the campaign, Trump suggested large-scale deportations and reduced legal immigration, which would tighten the low-wage labor market. However, QNB projects that Trump will adopt a more moderate approach, focusing on stricter screening for legal immigrants and selective deportations rather than sweeping policy shifts. Such a stance would mitigate potential labor shortages, particularly in the service sector, and support continued U.S. demographic growth.
“Trump ‘2.0’ would bring significant change to the U.S. economic agenda,” QNB concluded, particularly in fiscal, trade, and immigration policies. However, the bank expects Trump’s policy approach to be less radical than his campaign promises, forecasting long-term U.S. GDP growth of 2.5-3% annually under his second term.
