The sudden escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and the temporary closure of key air corridors have delivered a sharp setback to the Gulf’s tourism and aviation sectors, grounding flights at some of the world’s busiest transit hubs and stranding thousands of travellers.
Airspace closures and security concerns forced major airports, including Dubai International, Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi, and Hamad International Airport in Doha, to suspend or limit operations. Airlines cancelled thousands of services as regional routes linking Europe, Asia and Africa were disrupted.
According to Tourism Economics, more than 5,000 flights were cancelled in the first two days of the conflict. The Middle East accounts for about 14 per cent of global international transit traffic, underscoring the strategic importance of its aviation corridors.
The fallout has rippled across the broader tourism industry. Hotels in Gulf cities reported cancellations from overseas visitors, even as they accommodated stranded passengers and airline crews. International tour operators paused Middle East itineraries due to travel advisories and flight disruptions, affecting holiday bookings and business travel alike.
Tourism Economics outlined two possible recovery paths depending on how long the conflict lasts. In an early resolution scenario lasting one to three weeks, inbound arrivals to the region could fall around 11 per cent in 2026 compared with earlier projections. That would translate into roughly 23 million fewer visitors and an estimated $34 billion drop in tourism spending.
If hostilities continue for up to two months, arrivals could decline by as much as 27 per cent year on year, with spending losses reaching about $56 billion. Gulf Cooperation Council countries are expected to experience the largest absolute declines because of their reliance on air connectivity and their role as transit hubs.
The disruption comes after a period of strong growth. Data from the Statistical Centre for the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf showed international tourism revenues across the GCC reached $120.2 billion in 2024, up nearly 40 per cent from 2019 levels. Visitor arrivals climbed to 72.2 million, surpassing pre-pandemic figures by more than half and raising the region’s share of global tourism to 5.2 per cent.
The UAE has been central to that expansion, with Dubai emerging as a leading tourism hub supported by extensive air links and a strong global brand. The emirate has previously demonstrated resilience, restoring visitor numbers to record levels within two years of the Covid-19 pandemic through marketing campaigns and major international events.
Industry leaders say the region’s infrastructure and connectivity position it well for recovery once airspace restrictions ease. Analysts believe that if flights resume quickly and stability returns within weeks, travel demand could rebound within months, echoing the region’s recovery after previous crises.
