ROME, ITALY — Italy is on track to record its lowest number of births in history in 2024, marking the 16th consecutive year of decline, according to a report by the national statistical bureau ISTAT released on Monday. The falling birth rate, which has been a growing concern for years, now stands at its lowest point since the country’s unification in 1861.
ISTAT data shows a significant drop in births between January and July 2024, with 4,600 fewer births compared to the same period in 2023, representing a 2.1% decrease. The trend follows a broader pattern, as Italy recorded 379,890 births in 2023, a 3.4% decline from the previous year and a staggering 34.1% drop from 2008—the last year the country saw an increase in births.
The nation’s fertility rate, defined as the average number of children born per woman, now stands at 1.2. This figure is far below the 2.1 rate needed to maintain a stable population. Italy’s shrinking birth rate is seen as a national crisis, with significant implications for the economy and the country’s aging population.
Despite repeated pledges by successive governments to address the issue, no substantial progress has been made in reversing the decline. Experts warn that Italy’s demographic crisis is one of the worst in Europe, with severe consequences for the nation’s long-term economic growth. Scope Ratings, an independent credit rating agency, recently highlighted that Italy’s demographics pose the greatest threat to its economic potential between 2023 and 2040.
The aging population is placing further strain on Italy’s public finances, as fewer young people are entering the workforce to support an increasing number of retirees. Last year, Eurostat data revealed that Italy had the lowest employment rate in the European Union, compounding concerns about the country’s ability to manage its fiscal future.
ISTAT’s report also revealed that Italian women are having their first child later in life, with the average age remaining stable at 31 years in 2023. Additionally, the percentage of babies born to unmarried women continues to rise, reaching 42.4% last year, up from 41.5% in 2022.
As Italy continues to grapple with its declining birth rate and its broader demographic challenges, experts stress the urgency of addressing these issues. Without significant intervention, Italy faces an uncertain future, with mounting economic pressures and a population that is both shrinking and aging at an alarming rate.
