As celebrations erupted across Syria following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad, businesses in Turkey that rely heavily on Syrian labor are grappling with the potential economic fallout. The Turkish textile industry, a cornerstone of the nation’s economy, is particularly vulnerable, with many fearing a significant labor shortage if Syrian workers return home.
Ali Gozcu, owner of ALG Tekstil, a clothing manufacturer in the southeastern city of Gaziantep, expressed deep concern over the possible departure of Syrian workers. “The Syrians have made a big contribution to the textile sector here. If they leave, there will be a serious labor problem,” he said. Gaziantep, home to half a million Syrians, is a hub for Turkey’s textile industry, which ranks as the world’s sixth-largest. Gozcu estimates that 70 percent of his workforce is Syrian, a statistic echoed by other businesses in the region.
Yusuf Samil Kandil, a quality controller at Beni Giy clothing, highlighted the economic impact of a potential exodus. “If the Syrians leave, our labor costs will increase significantly, as well as our production costs,” he said. The Unal district, where textile factories dominate the landscape, relies almost entirely on Syrian labor. Mannequins and racks of garments fill dusty shopfronts, a testament to the industry’s reliance on these workers.
Turkey hosts approximately 2.9 million Syrian migrants, with around 100,000 holding official work permits. However, experts estimate that nearly one million Syrians are active in the Turkish economy, many working informally in labor-intensive sectors like construction, manufacturing, and textiles. Their departure could deal a severe blow to industries already struggling with inflationary pressures and rising costs.
While Turkish Interior Ministry figures show that just over 81,000 Syrians have returned home so far, observers predict a surge in departures during the upcoming Eid al-Adha holiday in June. Yet, experts caution that fears of a mass exodus may be overblown. Professor Murat Erdogan, who conducts the Syrians Barometer survey, noted that while many Syrians are eager to return, significant barriers remain. “Although they’re very happy that Assad is gone, that was only one barrier to them going back,” he said. Concerns about safety, ongoing conflict, and Syria’s devastated infrastructure continue to deter many from leaving Turkey.
For many Syrians, life in Turkey, though challenging, offers stability and better economic opportunities. Over the past 12 years, more than 970,000 Syrian babies have been born in Turkey, underscoring the deep roots many have established. “They told us they have a lot of problems in Turkey and work very hard for very little money. But if they go back, even if they did find jobs, they said they’ll only get $14 a month,” Erdogan explained. In contrast, Syrian workers in Turkey earn significantly more, making the decision to return a difficult one.
Despite the uncertainty, some Turkish businesses are exploring innovative solutions. Gozcu, for instance, is considering opening workshops in Syria to accommodate returning workers. “We’ve become very close with our Syrian workers,” he said. “If need be, we will open workshops in Syria for them and will continue our production there.”
Looking ahead, experts like Kemal Kirisci of the Brookings Institution see potential for economic collaboration between Turkey and Syria. “Syria is a very promising place in the long run. Ideally, we could have a very porous economic border so people could move back-and-forth,” he said. Such a arrangement could revive the once-envisioned ‘ShamGen’ zone, a free trade and visa-free movement area between Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey, inspired by the EU’s Schengen zone.
For now, the Turkish textile industry remains in a state of cautious anticipation, balancing the hope of Syrian workers with the reality of an uncertain future.
