The UAE is set to announce its retail fuel prices for December on Saturday, November 30, as global market trends point to a potential slight decline. The adjustment comes as part of the country’s policy of aligning domestic fuel rates with international benchmarks, a practice implemented since the deregulation of petrol prices in 2015.
A bearish sentiment in global oil markets, partly influenced by eased concerns over supply disruptions from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, suggests that the UAE’s Fuel Price Committee may lower prices slightly to reflect global rates. Analysts are closely monitoring the upcoming announcement to gauge its alignment with the broader market trends.
Recent forecasts indicate a softer outlook for oil prices. BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, revised its Brent crude price forecast for 2025 down to $76 per barrel from a previous estimate of $78, citing a “bearish fundamental outlook” and ongoing market sentiment pressures. The report also highlighted potential downside risks stemming from geopolitical and economic factors.
Adding to the market dynamics, the OPEC+ group—comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia—has postponed its next policy meeting to December 5, originally scheduled for December 1. The meeting is expected to focus on extending production cuts to stabilize prices.
In parallel, analysts at Goldman Sachs have projected a potential reduction in Iranian crude supply by up to 1 million barrels per day in the first half of 2024, should Western nations tighten sanctions enforcement. Such a move could influence global supply levels and, consequently, price trajectories.
In November, the UAE’s Fuel Price Committee revised domestic rates downward, setting Super 98 at AED 2.74 per liter, Special 95 at AED 2.63, and E-Plus at AED 2.55. Any adjustments announced for December are expected to align similarly with international benchmarks.
The UAE’s transparent fuel pricing mechanism ensures that local rates are reflective of global market conditions, providing predictability for consumers and businesses. The December announcement will be keenly observed by residents and industry stakeholders, especially as global oil markets remain influenced by geopolitical developments and OPEC+ policy decisions.
The revised rates are expected to take effect on December 1, marking another adjustment in the UAE’s effort to maintain a competitive and fair pricing structure amidst fluctuating global oil markets.
