Dubai’s supply of homes priced below Dh1 million has tightened significantly this year, with new data showing a double-digit drop in available listings as demand intensifies across the city’s affordable housing segment. According to a new analysis released by global real estate consultancy Knight Frank, the number of properties on the market under Dh1 million fell by 14 per cent in the first nine months of 2025, even as sales in the same price band rose by 10 per cent.
The consultancy attributed the shift to strong appetite among residents and investors seeking smaller and more affordable units, a trend that continues to gather pace following a record price rally that has now stretched across five years. Knight Frank noted a rise in listings around Dh1.25 million, but said the pickup in sales has been even stronger. “In essence, sales are happening faster than the stock is being replenished,” the firm reported.
The analysis tracked changes in listings and completed transactions across price bands to identify early signals of market imbalance. It found that while certain concerns persist over a potential slowdown, Dubai’s property market has maintained steady momentum, defying projections of a large correction. Sentiment remains broadly positive across most segments, supported by sustained investor confidence and robust transaction levels.
One notable exception is the ultra-luxury segment, particularly homes priced above Dh25 million. Stock levels in this category are increasing at a faster rate than sales. “Over the Dh25 million threshold, stock levels are rising faster than the rate of deals,” said Shehzad Jamal, partner for strategy and consultancy for the Middle East and Africa at Knight Frank. He added that developers have been shifting their focus toward the high-end market as demand from global wealthy buyers remains strong.
Dubai’s property sector continues to show resilience moving into the third quarter of 2025. Average residential values rose 2.5 per cent in Q3, extending an uninterrupted sequence of quarterly increases that began in late 2020 and leaving prices 10 per cent higher than a year earlier. Aggregate residential transactions for the year to date have surpassed Dh310 billion, among the highest levels on record. Q3 alone generated Dh117 billion in sales, slightly above the same period last year.
Market analysts note that the pace of price growth is beginning to ease after five years of consistent increases. Quarterly growth averaged 2.02 per cent in 2021 and 2.22 per cent in 2022, accelerating to 4.34 per cent in both 2023 and 2024 before moderating to 3.2 per cent across the first three quarters of 2025. “This persistent upward trend, which has now spanned five full years, has delivered on the promise of the ‘roaring twenties’ we predicted back in 2021,” said Faisal Durrani, partner and head of research for MENA at Knight Frank.
Apartment prices climbed 2.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 9.6 per cent year-on-year in Q3, led by gains in central and waterfront districts. Villas continued to outperform, rising 3.6 per cent during the quarter and standing 12 per cent higher than Q3 2024.
