The United Arab Emirates is expected to increase its oil production beyond 5 million barrels per day next year, positioning the country as one of the largest contributors to global supply growth outside the OPEC+ alliance, according to a new assessment by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The forecast follows the UAE’s decision earlier this year to leave OPEC, a move Abu Dhabi said would allow it to focus on expanding production capacity and maximizing the value of its hydrocarbon resources without being restricted by group production quotas.
The IEA projects the UAE’s total oil output will reach 5.2 million barrels per day in 2027, representing an increase of about 730,000 barrels per day compared with the previous year. The agency said the expected rise reflects years of investment aimed at strengthening the country’s position as a major energy producer.
According to the IEA, the UAE has steadily expanded its crude oil production capacity from 3.1 million barrels per day in 2016 to nearly 4.4 million barrels per day by 2026. In addition, the country has developed around 1.1 million barrels per day of condensate and natural gas liquids capacity, highlighting a long-term strategy focused on growth and energy security.
The expansion is being driven largely by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), which recently announced plans to award projects worth Dh200 billion ($55 billion) between 2026 and 2028. The company has also outlined capital investment plans totaling $150 billion over the 2026-2030 period as it seeks to increase production and modernize infrastructure.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei has previously indicated that the country could potentially raise oil production capacity to as much as 6 million barrels per day if market conditions justify such a move, although he emphasized that this is not an official production target.
The IEA noted that the UAE’s export performance has remained resilient despite disruptions caused by the recent conflict involving Iran. Key infrastructure assets, including the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which can transport up to 1.8 million barrels per day, and storage facilities in Fujairah capable of holding 42 million barrels, have helped maintain export flows.
Exports increased in May, with total shipments rising by 260,000 barrels per day from the previous month to reach 3.1 million barrels per day. Crude production also climbed to 2.8 million barrels per day, although output remained below levels recorded before the regional conflict.
To further strengthen export capacity, ADNOC is accelerating work on a new west-to-east pipeline designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The company said the project is about halfway complete and is expected to be operational by 2027. Once finished, the pipeline is expected to double Fujairah’s export capacity, providing an additional route for UAE oil shipments to global markets.
The IEA said these developments are likely to make the UAE a key driver of non-OPEC+ supply growth in the years ahead as the country continues to expand production and export infrastructure.
